This chart is showing Bitcoin stock to flow model price compared to actual close price for a given month. Stock to flow is a value calculated when total number of Bitcoins in circulation is divided by number of Bitcoins generated in a month and then divided by 12. It shows how many years is needed in order to produce all Bitcoins currently in circulation. The higher the number the higher scarcity. If the scarcity is higher then the price goes up. Why is this important? Because every 210.000 blocks there is an event called "halvening" which means that reward for mining Bitcoin is cut by half which means monthly production is also cut by half. That makes stock to flow ratio (scracity) higher so in theory price should go up.
If you need more information about stock to flow, scarcity and halveinng please read this article: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity
On the graph below, X axis is showing months and Y USD value. Blue line is showing model price calculated as = exp(-1.84)*SF^3.36. Colored dots are showing actual end of month price while different colors represent number of months until next halvening (see color bar on right side).
Data on this page is updated every 15 minutes.
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